May 28 2010

Marcus & Millichap Market Udate

Tag: Education, Industrial, Market Conditions, Office, TrendsDonald Teel @ 1:44 PM

Here is an opportunity to update your market knowledge via a recent online webcast sponsored by Marcus & Millichap, entitled “2010 Office and Industrial Market Outlook and Investment Strategies Webcast.”

The information provided here is better than the far-reaching and biased reports I have read, while giving some real signals as to where the commercial property and capital markets are headed.

Click the image below to be taken to the pre-recorded webcast.
























This presentation is Copyright © 2010, Marcus & Millichap and is used for educational and editorial purposes.


Donald Teel is a Senior Associate and Principal with Arizona Commercial, an Arizona commercial real estate brokerage and property management firm, headquartered in Prescott, Arizona. Need more information? Please call 1-877-777-9100 or, if you prefer, you may email Donald Teel

May 12 2010

CRE Road Kill: Tenant Trough, Part 2

Tag: Leasing, Market Conditions, Office, VideoDonald Teel @ 7:23 PM

Here we are again, with time on our hands to engage in a little Commercial Real Estate Road Kill where we can shoot the breeze about CRE. This is a continuation of my rambling discussion about the current “The Tenant Trough” that is impacting office and retail owners.

This was shot while tooling down Interstate 40 between Flagstaff and Kingman, Arizona. It’s all part of a new feature for this blog entitled CRE Road Kill. Stay tuned for more CRE Road Kill.


Donald Teel is a Senior Associate and Principal with Arizona Commercial, an Arizona commercial real estate brokerage and property management firm, headquartered in Prescott, Arizona. Need more information? Please call 1-877-777-9100 or, if you prefer, you may email Donald Teel

Apr 29 2010

The Michael Lewis Interview

Tag: Market Conditions, News, VideoDonald Teel @ 10:13 AM

Michael Lewis says, “People see what they get paid to see.” Wall Street experts, according to Lewis, are paid to not see certain things, as well. Is Wall Street’s bonus culture unsustainable? Has Wall Street been designed to win when it loses?

The following “60 Minutes” interview is an amazing story from the inside of the mortgage securities industry and how experts made money creating a disaster and are now making money cleaning up the disaster. Imagine being paid to run your organization into the ground…watch it.


Watch CBS News Videos Online


Donald Teel is a Senior Associate and Principal with Arizona Commercial, an Arizona commercial real estate brokerage and property management firm, headquartered in Prescott, Arizona. Need more information? Please call 1-877-777-9100 or, if you prefer, you may email Donald Teel

Apr 18 2010

CRE Road Kill: Tenant Trough, Part 1

Tag: Market Conditions, Tenants, VideoDonald Teel @ 6:48 PM

Driving gives me an opportunity to think about what I am doing, some of the challenges we are facing in the buisness and how my clients can weather what I call “The Tenant Trough.” Rather than simply tool down the long and winding road, I have decided to utilize my drive times by engaging in a little Commercial Real Estate Road Kill.

The following video was shot on a recent drive to Phoenix and is the first of what I hope will be a regular feature entitled CRE Road Kill. In this installment, I am addressing what I call the Tenant Trough, what it is the problems it creates for owners. In Part 2 I will talk about solutions…stay tuned.

Merriam-Webster defines “trough” as follows:

  • a long and narrow or shallow channel or depression (as between waves);
  • the minimum point of a complete cycle of a periodic function;
  • the low point in a business cycle


Donald Teel is a Senior Associate and Principal with Arizona Commercial, an Arizona commercial real estate brokerage and property management firm, headquartered in Prescott, Arizona. Need more information? Please call 1-877-777-9100 or, if you prefer, you may email Donald Teel

Apr 04 2010

Leupp: REITs Signal Beginning of 3-5 Year Recovery in Commercial Property

Tag: Investment, REITsDonald Teel @ 9:03 AM

Jay Paul Leupp, founder of Grubb & Ellis, talks with Bloomberg’s Julie Hyman and Mark Crumpton about the outlook for the U.S. commercial real estate market. Leupp also discusses his investment strategy and prospects for Associated Estates Realty Corp. and Sun Communities Inc. (Source: Bloomberg)



Donald Teel is a Senior Associate and Principal with Arizona Commercial, an Arizona commercial real estate brokerage and property management firm, headquartered in Prescott, Arizona. Need more information? Please call 1-877-777-9100 or, if you prefer, you may email Donald Teel

Mar 30 2010

Battle of the Bulge – Buying Down the Bloat

Tag: Leasing, Market Conditions, TenantsDonald Teel @ 6:05 PM

bloatedWant to know what I think? There is not going to be some cataclysmic, spin-on-a-dime turn-around for small and medium commercial real estate owners. This time, like no other time, we are in a long haul climb up the cliff face of mount cash-flow.

We are in a kind of real estate battle of the bulge. We have too much space (the bulge) and not enough users to quickly alleviate the bloat of vacancies. It is true, we have seen some spurts and sputters, which have caused some to optimistically think and even say, “the recession is over, we’re coming out of it.”

Everything I read, hear, view and all of my experiences at the street level are telling me the battle of the bulge is not over and the trick of trade for survivors is the ability to buy cash flow and to buy it now. Yes, you heard it correctly. Owners need to change their posture and assume a position of cash flow deal makers.

Before you write me off, think about it carefully. Owners have always been engaged in buying cash flow. CRE 101 is cash flow as the basis for property value. Owners have always traded space and rate for cash flow. Our problem is that we are in various stages of denial about the current cost we must pay to purchase cash flow.

As unemployment increases, consumer spending diminishes and for small and medium size investors such a climate can produce a lot of sleepless nights. As the current credit crunch begins to squeeze owner refinancing options and new lending diminishes to close to a 50 year low, we are once again going to have to buy the limited cash flow at discounted pricing in order to sustain our properties.

Let me give you an example of the battle of the bulge and the principle of buying cash flow. Let’s suppose a particular geographic market area has 1,000,000 square feet of total retail space with a current vacancy rate of 27%. Let’s introduce a tenant default rate of 12% per annum into the equation (not far off the current mark).

Finally, let’s assume a net absorption rate of 5% per annum, meaning we have 50,000 s.f. per year being leased. This equates to a sustained vacancy rate of 220,000 s.f. vacancy growing at 7% per year.

Furthermore, it means that we have less cash flow to buy, therefore the cost of the cash flow increases over time, i.e., owners pay more for each tenant’s cash flow in order to remain competitive. Bottom line, NOI drops and NOI is our commodity.

In a five-year market of the kind we are experiencing the numbers look like this:

  • Year 1 end = 220,000 s.f. vacancy
  • Year 2 end = 235,400 s.f. vacancy
  • Year 3 end = 251,878 s.f. vacancy (we are now at 25% vacancy)
  • Year 4 end = 269,509 s.f. vacancy
  • Year 1 end = 288,375 s.f. vacancy

During this transition, which is exactly the type of transition we are currently experiencing, the cost for limited cash flow is increased due to the economic principle of supply and demand. We are leasing but not fast enough.

Owners ALWAYS buy cash flow, make no mistake about it. My point is that it is going to cost us more to buy the decreasing cash flow available from the decreasing tenant pool.

Fourteen dollar retail leases are becoming $10 or $11 dollar leases. We are paying $3 to $4 more per square foot to purchase the shrinking number of tenants. Tenants know this and they are not selling their cash flow easily. Like the game of golf, the lowest scores are winning.

The ugly side of this is the certanty of diminishing property values. It is a reality we are going to have to learn to live with for another 24-36 months. Those who wait too long to adjust their pricing and leasing models will certainly loose the battle for the limited tenant pool.


Donald Teel is a Senior Associate with Arizona Commercial, an Arizona commercial brokerage and property management firm. Need more information? Please call 1-877-777-9100 or, if you prefer, you may email Donald Teel

Mar 25 2010

Another Very Simple Leasing Tip

Tag: Education, Leasing, TenantsDonald Teel @ 6:42 PM

After a few years in the business, things start looking the same. Property ads read the same…photos seem similar…on and on it goes. Of late, owners have been looking for ways to make their property stand out from the crowd as unique. Here’s another very simple leasing tip for owners of just about any size property of any variety.






















Donald Teel is a Senior Associate with Arizona Commercial, an Arizona commercial brokerage and property management firm. Need more information? Please call 1-877-777-9100 or, if you prefer, you may email Donald Teel

Feb 21 2010

Terminatio Simulatio Velociter

Tag: Education, Retail, Selling Strategies, TenantsDonald Teel @ 9:24 AM

richard_boone_Paladin - 175My first Broker, the Del Webb Corporation, was big on fast failure. The principle and skill of what I now call Terminatio Simulatio Velociter was drilled into the head of each fledgling Sales Counselor whose job it was to meet, greet and qualify prospect who visited the Sales Pavilion in Sun City West.

Now, some nearly 25 years hence, I truly do recognize the importance of “sorting” and the notion of elimination has become more and more a part of representing my commercial real estate clients effectively.

Of late, and driven by market conditions, there has emerged a new brand of bottom-feeding. It’s a concept I call “LOI Shopping” or, maybe “Networking the Deal” for better terms.

There is no doubt in my mind that this carp-like behavior among prospective tenants is a product of too much inventory and the desire of often marginal tenants to continue their vain attempts to shrink or even collapse the pricing envelope. Mind you, there is no orchestrated conspiracy here; just a glut of inventory and an every expanding population of weak tenants who think if they shake the tree hard enough fruit will fall to the ground.

Well, I am mad as hell and not going to take it anymore! I am implementing new measures to expose and terminate the pretenders…these fakes and would be tenant hypocrites who are representing themselves to my clients as so much more than they really are.

Although I am not ready to strap on a six shooter like Richard Boone did in “Have Gun Will Travel,” and ride into some western town on a mission of settling scores, I am ready for a serious revision of my qualifying language and the way I handle the “wanna be” candidate.

Sorting through Hypocrisy

Sorting through Hypocrisy

Since we are using some Latin, let me throw in some Greek too. The work “hypocrite” is derived from the Greek noun “υποκριτής” meaning “one who wears two masks.” It’s the source of the theater icon that depicts “comedy and tragedy.”

I am ready to pull back a few masks and find out what is behind them. I’m ready for a lot less comedy, especially since no one is laughing. Then too, I am not especially fond of the tragedy angle either.

Masks don’t work well in the empirical world of commercial real estate. Masks are only suitable for the stage, where the emotions of an audience are supposed to be toyed with.

I’m going back to what Del Webb taught me as a highly skilled Sales Counselor…the principle of Terminatio Simulatio Velociter or, in plain English, TERMINATE THE PRETENDER QUICKLY.

You see, guys like Del Webb understood clearly the principled approach to professional representation. There are only two types of real estate investors or, in the case of Del E. Webb, home buyers; the ones that will and the ones that won’t…the ones that can and the ones that can’t…the ones that do and the ones that don’t.

Those that will are those than can and those that can are those that do. No mask, no pretense.

To the Webb organization, the deliberately implemented sorting process begins at the first business encounter (give name, get name, use name) and continues as an integral component of all the follows, culminating in securing loyalty, examination, agreement and execution.

For the foreseeable future, the market is going to continue to hammer us all, owners, tenants and brokers. Too many properties, too little time and too few truly qualified tenants and investors.

I’m going back to the principle of Terminatio Simulatio Velociter or, in plain English, TERMINATE THE PRETENDER QUICKLY.


Donald Teel is a Senior Associate with Arizona Commercial, an Arizona commercial brokerage and property management firm. Need more information? Please call 1-877-777-9100 or, if you prefer, you may email Donald Teel

Feb 17 2010

Break from the Pack Marketing Models

Tag: Market Conditions, Trends, VideoDonald Teel @ 9:37 AM

the lone wolf 200Traditional commercial real estate marketing seems to be experiencing erosion.

Why?

Because many of the old models don’t work well in an increasingly collaborative world where people want to have a relationship and role in the creation of their investment outcomes, that’s why.

How is your property being marketed? How quickly can you turn the message and communicate change to thousands of people in a moment of time? These are huge questions for property owners.

In the marketing of your property are you running with the big dogs or licking with the pups? How can you break from the pack in 2010 and beyond enabling you to run with the big dogs?

Meet the Puppies Lickin’ and Playin’ on the Porch

When it comes to commercial real estate marketing, there are pups on the porch lickin’ and there are big dogs in the fields runnin’.

High failure rate marketing models such as cards, letters, complicated brochures, mindless spreadsheets that don’t cut-to-the-chase, ugly property signs and costly networking meetings are increasingly being replaced with lean and quick, impactful, attention-getting, direct and digital marketing models. Interactive, please.

In today’s commercial real estate marketing game slow is bad…speed is good; actually, speed is essential. In a competitive environment, slow is costly, while speed, agility and message delivery creates economic margins and a more responsive audience.

Big, old-line marketing is expensive, complicated and difficult to control, modify and monetize; the message is mostly, non-repetitive with a single impression that yields lower results. Message renewal is necessary for property owners, but old models make its delivery expensive and its recreation clunky and difficult.

A large factor in effective marketing is the ability or inability to edit our message on the fly…THIS IS HUGE IN TODAY’S FICKLE MARKET. Minutes and hours can make the difference in deal-making. Speed counts. Reaction time is money.

Break from the Pack…Lone Wolf Marketing

Ask yourself why Twitter, MySpace, YouTube, Craig’s List and Facebook have hundreds of millions of global viewers daily. Why do companies like Exxon, General Electric, Hollywood film makers, resorts, news networks and national retailers have Twitter accounts?
Continue reading “Break from the Pack Marketing Models”

Feb 15 2010

Owner Tip #172 – Pick “A” or “B”

Tag: Centers, Leasing, Market Conditions, Prescott Commercial, RetailDonald Teel @ 5:20 PM

We are in an option market…tenants have an increasing array of space options available to them, whether office, retail or medical. My advice to owners is simply; if you are in an option market, create and control your own options.

leasing options - 172



















It is a competitive and nervous leasing market and therefore, it is wise for owners to abandon the “one-size-fits-all” approach to leasing.

Lease program development requires a careful examination of the prospective tenant’s business needs and qualifications. Whether the commercial real estate market is Prescott, Arizona, Tucson, Arizona or Phoenix, Arizona, presenting lease options to a prospective tenant can work well because options are non-threatening and they empower.

It is entirely possible that some leases can be optioned to the tenant where street rate is actually exceeded in years 4-5 of an initial term. In a market filled with vacancies and tenants seeking the best value in exchange for their commitment, it makes sense to offer optional leasing programs, which empower the tenant (let me give you a hint, they already have the power) to exercise the power of choice.

Vacancies are increasing and owners are competing for a limited number of truly qualified tenants. The option approach is another opportunity for economic performance. It will be some time before we can say to tenants, “The rate is the rate…” and have them sign off with little resistance.


Donald Teel is a Senior Associate with Arizona Commercial, an Arizona commercial brokerage and property management firm. Need more information? Please call 1-877-777-9100 or, if you prefer, you may email Donald Teel

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