Has anything changed since Trump wrote his 1988 best seller? Yes, a lot has changed. The fundamentals of deal making have not changed and perhaps they never will.

Making deals is one thing…now, however, the renewed skill that is most in demand is how to shape the deals we are making.

Due to today’s unique economic times, I’m discovering there is a big difference between securing signatures and shaping a deal for long term performance.

In fact, shaping the deal may be the requisite skill now in most demand because there are fewer deals to be done and the deals that are getting done require more perseverance and targeted thinking.

Negotiating Breakfast with My Daughter

Almost every day, we are all negotiating something. I did it this morning with my 9-year-old daughter. We negotiated about her breakfast. She wanted chocolate donuts, not one, but two! Once we formulated the premise for the sign-off, i.e., what each side had to have, we then had the core of the deal.

My position was clear. “You cannot have donuts for breakfast.” Her position was, “Donuts is the only way to make this deal work.”

Of course, like all parents, we often have to force the deal on our children, especially when it comes to property diet.

My daughter knows the limits when pushing dad around. We have long ago established the negotiating framework. She opened the shaping phase of the negotiations with “So, Dad…you said no donuts for ‘breakfast’…that means I can have one if we don’t call it ‘breakfast’…we can call it desert from last night’s dinner.”

Suddenly, I was reminded of the power of shaping the deal, rather than simply making the deal.

The negotiations were shaped and the deal finalized after a healthy breakfast of fruit, scrambled egg and one strip of bacon. On her side, she got half a donut placed in her lunch box. She got some of what she wanted…I got some of what I wanted and what I know as a parent she needs.

Shaping Deals with Adults who Fight Back

There is a big difference between negotiating and shaping a deal with a kid over whom you have parental rights and authority and squaring off with adult negotiators who fight back and refuse to be shaped.

In the commercial real estate arena the principles of shaping the deal are the same. And here they are for you master negotiators:

• Understand the financial framework of the deal; your side and the other side. Clint Eastwood once said in a movie, “A man’s got to know his limitations.”
• Create points in time where you give the other side what they want. If you cannot surrender a point today, when might you and how might you at some point in the deal.
• Engage in trade-offs that are tangible and represent real concessions…people are not stupid, so be honest and don’t try to smoke and mirror the other side.
• Keep reminding yourself that you may never have another opportunity to shape the deal in front of you. In today’s complex market investors and tenants are fickle and may not return to the table.

Of course, some deals cannot be shaped. When the numbers do not work, they simply do not work, period. You cannot shape a $30 per square foot deal in a $20 market, usually.

What you can do is shape the transaction, its terms and cash flow in a number of ways to create transitional value in the down market so that in 3, 5 or 7 years your value position is closer to the desired financial end point.

Say “No” too early in the process is often going to kill the transaction for all parties. Replacing “No” with “Let’s look at this to see if we can make it work” is the first step in shaping the deal.

Shaping the deal will protract the cycle, increasing the cost of sale; time is money. There are few quick-close deals in my market. The limited deals take longer. The economy has created Principals that are decidedly more hesitant and methodical as they wind their way through the deal.

Shaping is becoming the new norm and the skill-set required is not easily found and maintained. We have been spoiled by the easy deals that were part of the 2000 to 2006 real estate boom. These are gone, perhaps for good. The bar has been raised and shaping the deal is often a more powerful skill than simply making the deal.

As capital drys up, the pace of investment slows and qualified tenant pools shrink. Engaging in the science and art of shaping the deal always made sense but now it is the critical element.

Shaping the deal is the new watershed.

When Max Taylor and Company, LLC entered the market with its acquisition of Sun Bell Plaza, Bell Road was two lanes.

Sun Bell Plaza was the premiere gateway to Del Webb’s Sun City and there were few retail strip centers along the corridor, much less the now famed Arrowhead Mall with its renown mash-up of surrounding retail properties that make Bell Road a magnet for shoppers, Spring baseball and concert enthusiasts.

Sun Bell Plaza

Sun Bell Plaza, located at 94th Avenue and West Bell Road in Sun City, Arizona is an example of what I call a “Gateway Retail Center” as it straddles both sides of the main corridor (north and south) at the very entrance to Del Webb’s Sun City retirement community.

Gateway properties can be ideal retail property investments as alternatives to higher end, larger retail malls and prime frontage properties located in more dense retail corridors, such as West Bell Road.

Download the Sun Bell Plaza Flyer.

Local neighborhood retailers and some national brands, such as insurance companies prefer gateway properties not only for their typically more attractive pricing structures but also because they give a community an alternative retail opportunity on high traffic corridors.

However, gateway properties are not without their drawbacks; such as signage and traffic ingress and egress off main corridors like West Bell Road where the traffic moves in excess of 45 mph. Rapidly moving traffic can make access to a retail center more difficult, thus elevating the need for highly visible signage.

In the case of Sun Bell Plaza, there is a traffic light which creates a necessary stop-and-go scenario, improving exposure.

Then and Now

When Sun Bell Plaza was built West Bell Road was a sleeping two lane road connecting metro Phoenix with Sun City. That has all changed now and changes in traffic and retail density diminish the effective retail value of a gateway property and therefore, a more refined approach to marketing and leasing is called for.

Correctly positioned local tenant mix that targets residential users, competitive pricing, creative marketing and long term property value strategies can continue to make gateway retail centers valuable to local residents.

Download the Sun Bell Plaza Flyer.

While the overall commercial retail market continues to lag, gateway property owners can capitalize on this weakness by being more aggressive in competing for neighborhood tenants. Having better-than-market lease rates, incentives and a “cash flow” posture is the key to helping owners ride through this down cycle.

Sun Bell Plaza continues to perform because it is a true Gateway Retail Property with well balanced tenant mix that serves the needs of residents in Sun City, Arizona. But the surrounding market continues to redefine its place and function in the retail community.

As with all retail centers, the marketing factors that currently exist are in a constant state of flux. Redefining a gateway property’s position, retooling its performance and re-marketing it with a unique and contemporary message can be a key to success.

Download the Sun Bell Plaza Flyer.

This was shot while tooling down Interstate 40 between Flagstaff and Kingman, Arizona. It’s all part of a new feature for this blog entitled CRE Road Kill. Stay tuned for more CRE Road Kill.

We are in a kind of real estate battle of the bulge. We have too much space (the bulge) and not enough users to quickly alleviate the bloat of vacancies. It is true, we have seen some spurts and sputters, which have caused some to optimistically think and even say, “The recession is over, we’re coming out of it.”

Everything I read, hear, view and all of my experiences at the street level are telling me the battle of the bulge is not over and the trick of trade for survivors is the ability to buy cash flow and to buy it now. Yes, you heard it correctly. Owners need to change their posture and assume a position of cash flow deal makers.

Before you write me off, think about it carefully. Owners have always been engaged in buying cash flow. CRE 101 is cash flow as the basis for property value. Owners have always traded space and rate for cash flow. Our problem is that we are in various stages of denial about the current cost we must pay to purchase cash flow.

As unemployment increases, consumer spending diminishes and for small and medium size investors such a climate can produce a lot of sleepless nights. As the current credit crunch begins to squeeze owner refinancing options and new lending diminishes to close to a 50 year low, we are once again going to have to buy the limited cash flow at discounted pricing in order to sustain our properties.

Let me give you an example of the battle of the bulge and the principle of buying cash flow. Let’s suppose a particular geographic market area has 1,000,000 square feet of total retail space with a current vacancy rate of 27%. Let’s introduce a tenant default rate of 12% per annum into the equation (not far off the current mark).

Finally, let’s assume a net absorption rate of 5% per annum, meaning we have 50,000 s.f. per year being leased. This equates to a sustained vacancy rate of 220,000 s.f. vacancy growing at 7% per year.

Furthermore, it means that we have less cash flow to buy, therefore the cost of the cash flow increases over time, i.e., owners pay more for each tenant’s cash flow in order to remain competitive. Bottom line, NOI drops and NOI is our commodity.

In a five-year market of the kind we are experiencing the numbers look like this:

• Year 1 end = 220,000 s.f. vacancy
• Year 2 end = 235,400 s.f. vacancy
• Year 3 end = 251,878 s.f. vacancy (we are now at 25% vacancy)
• Year 4 end = 269,509 s.f. vacancy
• Year 5 end = 288,375 s.f. vacancy

During this transition, which is exactly the type of transition we are currently experiencing, the cost for limited cash flow is increased due to the economic principle of supply and demand. We are leasing but not fast enough.

Owners ALWAYS buy cash flow, make no mistake about it. My point is that it is going to cost us more to buy the decreasing cash flow available from the decreasing tenant pool.

Fourteen dollar retail leases are becoming $10 or $11 dollar leases. We are paying $3 to $4 more per square foot to purchase the shrinking number of tenants. Tenants know this and they are not selling their cash flow easily. Like the game of golf, the lowest scores are winning.

The ugly side of this is the certainty of diminishing property values. It is a reality we are going to have to learn to live with for another 24-36 months. Those who wait too long to adjust their pricing and leasing models will certainly loose the battle for the limited tenant pool.

It is a competitive and nervous leasing market and therefore, it is wise for owners to abandon the “one-size-fits-all” approach to leasing.

Lease program development requires a careful examination of the prospective tenant’s business needs and qualifications. Whether the commercial real estate market is Prescott, Arizona, Tucson, Arizona or Phoenix, Arizona, presenting lease options to a prospective tenant can work well because options are non-threatening and they empower.

It is entirely possible that some leases can be optioned to the tenant where street rate is actually exceeded in years 4-5 of an initial term. In a market filled with vacancies and tenants seeking the best value in exchange for their commitment, it makes sense to offer optional leasing programs, which empower the tenant (let me give you a hint, they already have the power) to exercise the power of choice.

Vacancies are increasing and owners are competing for a limited number of truly qualified tenants. The option approach is another opportunity for economic performance. It will be some time before we can say to tenants, “The rate is the rate…” and have them sign off with little resistance.

Tenants come in two forms, good tenants and not-so-good (okay, go ahead and say it, “bad”) tenants. There seems to be no middle ground.

Tenants are capable of odd if not bizarre behavior and often they succumb to the same economic pressures impacting owners and landlords. Pressure can create abnormal responses in any person but when those pressures find their fundamental genesis in the economy, expect surprising tenant behavior.

Stories I have heard or read about lately make some tenants sound like Freddie Krueger…a bad Nightmare on Elm Street.

How to Handle the Next Nightmare. Whether on Elm Street or a strip mall in Atlanta, if you are a commercial owner, landlord, broker or property manager, you are going to eventually meet Freddie and have a nightmare tenant on your hands.

Dealing with Mr. Krueger begins with tenant screening and qualifying. If there was ever a precept that was violated by many owners during the market run-up from 2000-2006, it was qualifying tenants.

However, even after qualifying tenants economic and other factors can erode the performance of any tenant, creating desperation and a propensity to go sideways.

Owners can reduce but not totally control the “Freddie effect” by bearing down on the up-front analysis of the tenant. Controlling a future nightmare on your street begins with qualifying the tenant but it does not end there…read on.

A Second Line of Defense against Freddie the Tenant. Exceptional lease documents, drafted and designed to anticipate nightmares are the second line of defense against the Kruegers of this world. “I’m sorry,” I recently told a prospective tenant who complained about the length of the lease, “…the 28 pages of your lease are designed to anticipate just about anything and to protect you and the owner from misunderstandings.”

Bad documents seem to become “badder” (is that a word?) in the hands of a Freddie gone wild. Simplicity in the lease document can be a formula for future complexity and trouble on Elm Street.

As an investor, you don’t want to ever meet Freddie, the tenant, armed with a deficient lease document, cluttered with ambiguity. Freddie loves ambiguity!

Another thing I have learned along the highway of success and failure is that taking a strong position backed by logic, not rhetoric, is something Freddie understands.

When tenants have escalated the action, so to speak, the best position is a position of strength based upon facts, not emotional responses. Freddie loves fear…he thrives on it.

When a recently signed tenant angrily complained to me about not being able to occupy on the commencement date my response was to take a position of strength behind a quality document. My response, in part, was “…that is addressed in clear language in the lease and there is nothing I can do about that issue…” This defused a potentially volatile situation and kept the tenant from going “Krueger” on me.

Well drafted lease documents keep Freddie in place. After all, it’s much better to have a Mary Poppins than a Freddie Krueger on your hands.

When Freddie Keeps Coming Back. Like the horror flicks, Freddie never really dies and neither to tenant problems. If you have great tenants, stick around, Freddie is hiding in there somewhere, waiting for a chance to make a comeback.

To manage the potential return of Mr. Krueger, I recommend owners always use experienced property management as the front-line defense against negative tenant eruptions.

Property management is the third piece of the investment puzzle and can serve to help an owner keep his/her distance from day-to-day issues that should be handled by a Manager who knows the tenant, maintains the property and is not subject to the same emotional responses an owner may experience when faced with Freddie.

A good property management company will have its finger on the pulse of the property at all times and keep the owner informed but at a safe distance, thus increasing long term value through focused attention on the asset. Your property manager can warn you that Freddie is loose and enable you to solve issues before the slashing begins.

If you have never had a Freddie on your hands, count your blessings and be thankful this Thanksgiving Day. If you want to diminish the odds of an encounter with Mr. Krueger, use the three best tools available to you; (1) thorough screening of tenant, (2) a great lease document and (3) a property management company.

Many businesses predicate and sustain their business model on the economic relationship they have with their lease. When the line of profitability intersects the economic demands of the lease, business owners are faced with tough decisions…so, too are Owners.

Truly, a lease is a function of sound business planning and, in these days, may prove pivotal with respect to sustaining profitability. Revenue for some businesses has decline by almost 30 percent, a huge and life-threatening decline for just about any endeavor.

My Property Performance Analysis (PPA) was orignally designed to assist owners with assessing their property performance and financing options in this “vicious market” but I am extending it to a new approach that assists tenants with evaluating their lease, lease options and streamlining their lease.

The Tenant PPA looks at a number of factors from the Tenant’s side of the relationship, then seeks to formulate a strategy of lease modification that will prove accepatable to the Lessee and Lessor. Some of the components of the Tenant PPA are:

1. Financial review of business performance
2. Creation of ecomomic model for lease performance
3. Streamlining the lease to cycle through the downturn

Bottom Line. As a result of the Tenant PPA, rental rate modification may result if supported by the financial analysis. The Owner maintains leased space with creative offsets to the streamlined lease that serve as incentives against a space “going dark.” These incentives may include early renewals, extensions and rent adjustments associated with positive market and business performance improvements.

The Cost of Going Dark. Going dark is expensive. Re-letting space in a highly competitive market is costly, time consuming and almost always results in revenue decline when measured against a well drafted lease modification.

When an Owner/Tenant relationship is economically strained beyond the breaking point, our position at Arizona Commercial is a simple one, keep the lights on! In a rapidly appreciating market with vacancies below seven percent, this would not be the normal case. However, these are not normal economic times and the decision to execute a Tenant PPA may be in the best interest of the Parties.

Three suites are currently available and are priced at $9.50 per square foot, triple net with graduated annual rent incentives and half rents for qualified tenants. Download the flyer.

Owner is offering graduated lease rates with half-rent incentive for qualifying tenants. Download the flyer.

Watch the short video below to preview this property

For more information about this property, contact Donald Teel by email or, if you prefer by calling 928.777.8100. Visit CommercialWebPage.com. Download the flyer.