In the world where being grunge is often applauded and rewarded, I remain convinced that being tacky is a cultural statement about one’s point of reference.

Is it just me or have you also noticed some of the creeping influences of grunge within the world of CRE?

Of late, I’m becoming more acutely aware of the relationship between cracked stucco, peeling paint, potholed parking lots, leaking roofs and the level of an owner’s commitment to creating and maintain property value through capital improvements and dedication to property management.

I See Ugly Properties

My recent observations of properties in the metro Phoenix, Arizona commercial real estate market have led me to the conclusion that something grungy is happening. Once pristine properties are now left to the elements. The same grunge is becoming more and more apparent in the Prescott, Flagstaff and Sedona, Arizona commercial real estate markets.

There appears to be a deliberate draw-down on capital commitments and property management. It’s obvious, it’s annoying and it most certainly can impact a commercial property’s actual and perceived value. Capital is tight and owners are hesitant to spend.

In a market with negligible, if any, appreciation, some owners are choosing to tighten their financial belts by commiting the unpardonable sin of withholding capital and maintenance improvements necessary to the value equation. Some of this is being forced on owners under the principle of too much property, too little capital.

More than ever, those scant investors who are looking to buy or exchange are digging deeply into the maintenance history of a targeted property and insisting that value adjustments be made for improvements during the initial 36-month their ownership window.

Tenant Perceptions & the Grunge Factor

Retention is now as important as leasing itself. The most clostly and devestating loss a property experiences is vacancy recovery. In fact, I’m finding that in some cases retention is the only path owners can take to sustain their already threatened values.

Grunge shrinks values and contributes to poor leasing and negative tenant retention rates.

• Grunge = concerned, nervous and even angry tenant.
• Grunge = lower lease price per square foot.
• Grunge = a position of weakness in the renewal process.
• Grunge = refinancing problems reflected in appraisals.
• Grunge = diminished public percention of a property.
• Grunge = all sorts of ugliness…that’s why it’s called “grunge.”

The tenant issues stemming from CRE Grunge are myriad and they create value objections on the front end of the leasing process as well as retention problems. When a property enters a cycle toward physical decline the market responds with like-kind perceptions.

Quality maintenance = perceived and actual value.

Retail tenants are more keenly aware of the relationship between quality properties, price per s.f., NNN charges and more importantly, in their minds, consumer traffic.

We can cheat on maintenance, but not for long. Tenants are shopping the market, constantly looking for an edge on cost, a better location, a cleaner look and an owner committed to upkeep.

Grunge may be a prevailing desease we have to live with during the overbuilt, under-capitalized commercial real estate market. But, rest assured, grunge eventually extracts its toll.

Two camps have emerged. The first is what I will refer to as the “Disaster Camp” and the second is the “Recovery Camp.”

The Disaster Camp (DC) is the illusive analysts whose cryptic research clearly indicates we are entering an era of melt-down. The DC guys and gals come at us armed with their complex charts and narratives that prove conclusively that we are headed into doomsday.

The Recovery Camp (RC) is equally persuasive with their slick, bullet-pointed PowerPoint presentations. The RC camp trumpets phrases like “sidelined investor capital waiting to be spent” and “Bond money waiting to pounce on market opportunities.”

After all is said and done, more will have been said than done! I’m conflicted as a result of the plethora of combative voices that leave me feeling as if I have just stepped off a wild roller-coaster and cannot gain my bearings.

As we enter 2010, I’m a lot like many of my clients, nauseated and bewildered and I am vowing here and now to never ride that roller coaster again.

For at least the opening stages of 2010, I am going to go back to trusting the basic fundamentals of investment and my instincts. In the early part of 2010 I’m resolving to delete all of the emails that are in the DC and RC camp. Away with the charts and the PDFs that tell many tales.

Here is what I am going to do in 2010…return to trusting me, myself and I. Oh, I will be forced to gaze at many more PowerPoint prophets and read many more detailed documents designed to either scare me into sleeplessness or fill me with the phony messages of hope beyond reason.

My thought is that 2010 is going to be a year of disaster AND recovery. We will eat at both sides of that aweful table made up of vinegar and sugar. That is why I am going to return to trusting myself and to a healthy avoidance of investment extremism. I’m inviting you to do the same.

Okay, now what about Prescott, Arizona’s commerical market on a per square foot basis? What does it mean to owners and buyers. Is it time to buy? Is it time to sell? If so, how?

My recent suggestion to my Broker didn’t go over too well. “What we should be doing is pricing property for sellers on a ‘per square yard’ basis and for buyers on a ‘per square foot’ basis,” I said. He grimaced…I walked away.

High Value Market

We are a high value marketplace. Commericial real estate values in Central and Northern Arizona generally and in Prescott, Arizona in particular are declining creating an interesting investor market. Indeed, we appear to be nearing the bottom of the trough and it is and has been for some time…a buyer’s market.

We won’t be changing the marketing analysis to a per square yard formula but the principle behind the notion spells out the reality.

Resisting the Market Realties

Some owner’s are resisting the truth inherent in the current makret realities and in so doing they are actually capitalizing the reduction of their property value.

This is especially true in the industrial product sector where the demand has dropped to dangerous lows. Are there still buyers? Yes, but they have turned into razor sharp investors looking for select, easy to finance industrial properties.

In those cases where seller can play banker, they should. Let me go further, they must. Buyers are not looking for low-lying fruit…they are looking for fruit on the ground!

Entrenched commercial property owners who are either over-leveraged are surfacing at an alarming rate. The graph lines between market values and mortage principle balances are within sight of one another and in somecases they are crossing.

Some Sellers Can Sell Now

F&C owners should be encouraged because they are the few that can actually sell NOW, create a paper asset through cash flow and in some cases receive a much higher yield than if they hold on. An owner’s iron grip may prove to be his/her undoing.

Some owners sell now and some are…more will.

Prescott, Arizona industrial properties are wobbling like tops that have lost their centrifugal force.

Prescott, Arizona office space is flat, at best, with vacancies on the rise.

Prescott, Arizona medical…holding.

Prescott, Arizona retail is a nail-biting, month-to-month experience.

Leasing in 2008 was up 50% over 2007, while sales were down nearly 50% for the same time period.

It all makes me wonder, should we start marketing properties like carpet by pricing them per square yard? No, but after all is said and done, it’s always the numbers whether you are a seller or a buyer!

Contact me for a market report. Or, if you are a serious investor, call me, toll free at 1-877-777-9100.