Here we are again, with time on our hands to engage in a little Commercial Real Estate Road Kill where we can shoot the breeze about CRE. This is a continuation of my rambling discussion about the current “The Tenant Trough” that is impacting office and retail owners.
This was shot while tooling down Interstate 40 between Flagstaff and Kingman, Arizona. It’s all part of a new feature for this blog entitled CRE Road Kill. Stay tuned for more CRE Road Kill.
Donald Teel is a Senior Associate and Principal with Arizona Commercial, an Arizona commercial real estate brokerage and property management firm, headquartered in Prescott, Arizona. Need more information? Please call 1-877-777-9100 or, if you prefer, you may email Donald Teel
Driving gives me an opportunity to think about what I am doing, some of the challenges we are facing in the buisness and how my clients can weather what I call “The Tenant Trough.” Rather than simply tool down the long and winding road, I have decided to utilize my drive times by engaging in a little Commercial Real Estate Road Kill.
The following video was shot on a recent drive to Phoenix and is the first of what I hope will be a regular feature entitled CRE Road Kill. In this installment, I am addressing what I call the Tenant Trough, what it is the problems it creates for owners. In Part 2 I will talk about solutions…stay tuned.
Merriam-Webster defines “trough” as follows:
a long and narrow or shallow channel or depression (as between waves);
the minimum point of a complete cycle of a periodic function;
the low point in a business cycle
Donald Teel is a Senior Associate and Principal with Arizona Commercial, an Arizona commercial real estate brokerage and property management firm, headquartered in Prescott, Arizona. Need more information? Please call 1-877-777-9100 or, if you prefer, you may email Donald Teel
Traditional commercial real estate marketing seems to be experiencing erosion.
Why?
Because many of the old models don’t work well in an increasingly collaborative world where people want to have a relationship and role in the creation of their investment outcomes, that’s why.
How is your property being marketed? How quickly can you turn the message and communicate change to thousands of people in a moment of time? These are huge questions for property owners.
In the marketing of your property are you running with the big dogs or licking with the pups? How can you break from the pack in 2010 and beyond enabling you to run with the big dogs?
The following video features Harry Dent discussing the current market recovery and warns about the ticking time bomb…aka, loan defaults, foreclosures and unemployment and their relationship.
Dent predicts that we will see a foreclosure impact in the first quarter of 2011, 48% will have negative equity positions (mortgage principal higher than the market value) and 50% of those will be “severely” over-levereraged. We have $17 trillion in financial sector debt…all of it based upon leveraged borrowing.
Dent predicts unemployment, mortgage defaults and the worst of the crisis will be early to mid 2011.
According to Dent, “We are going to see the economy worsen again…we are seeing a recovery but it is not sustainable…next year is not going to be the year of recovery that most economists are promising.”
Ours has become a business culture and climate often made up of the lack of economic appreciation for many things and it seems there is a growing unwillingness to recognize the value of expertise, service and product quality and to mistakenly perceive that all things are open to negotiation. Or, worse yet, there is often a perception that all things are of equal value.
With a declining real estate market there is a mistaken notion that the value of commercial expertise is somehow diminished when instead its inherent value is increased due to the complexity of the market.
Often, when a client attempts to negotiate the cost my expertise downward, there is a corresponding decrease in my desire to commit resources, creativity and indeed the labor necessary to accomplish a stated objective. Accomplishing a client’s objectives is difficult in good markets; in bad markets the required disciplne is often excruciating.
Watch the humor but catch the economic drift of this YouTube video produced by Scofield Editorial, Inc. and entitled, The Vendor Client Relationship.
Warren Buffet, considered by some to be the consumate investor, was interviewed on CNBC on June 24, 2009, and indicated that he believes we have not seen the end of the economic decline.
Email Donald Teel for Prescott, Arizona Commercial Property information or, if you prefer, call him, toll free at 877-777-9100.
CommercialWebPage.com has been saying that the commercial lending industry was likely to become problematic for current owners and new investors. This creates cause for careful analysis and a strong look at what and where the marketing opportunities will be.
Some small investors need to take a hard look at their refinancing blueprint, especially those with notes coming due in the next 12-36 months. For those owners who are fortunate to be F&C on their properties I advise they give careful consideration to selling with carryback financing.
Listen to this report from Tom Fink, Senior V.P., TREPP, LLC and former CFO for North American Development Bank and then draw your own conclusions.
For more assistance or consulting services with respect to your commercial investment strategies email Donald Teel or, if you prefer, call me toll free at 877-777-9100.
Donald Teel is a Senior Associate and Principal Partner with Arizona Commercial, a commercial real estate Brokerage and Property Management Company that services the entire state of Arizona. Read more...
