CRE’s Coming Orwellian Abnormality

The CRE market is anything but “normal” in the traditional sense. Lenders are more demanding than ever and there is less capital on the table than in recent memory.

CAP rate pricing strategies are increasingly difficult to pencil-out these days. After we doing the math we are often left shaking our heads. Owners are facing note calls and having some sleepless nights wondering how to score lending. Lenders are insecure and uncertain about what the Feds might do next.

Welcome to “ABNORMAL” where normalcy, whatever it is or was, exists no more. Welcome to normal defined by abnormality. Our CRE world is fast becoming a frenzied marathon that owners discover takes them nowhere, slowly. Yikes!

Enter Legislative Reform and No Risk Lending

President Barack Obama has signed into law a 2,300 page legislative act known as the “Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act” (HR 4173).

Download the Davis Polk Summary of HR4173

Although the bloated document’s proponents claim the new law will right the financial wrongs that created the current abnormal state of affairs in lending, others think it may create more uncertainty in the lending market.

Proponents of the legislation claim it will reduce systematic risk in lending and thus protect the banks and the lenders.
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Break from the Pack Marketing Models

the lone wolf 200Traditional commercial real estate marketing seems to be experiencing erosion.

Why?

Because many of the old models don’t work well in an increasingly collaborative world where people want to have a relationship and role in the creation of their investment outcomes, that’s why.

How is your property being marketed? How quickly can you turn the message and communicate change to thousands of people in a moment of time? These are huge questions for property owners.

In the marketing of your property are you running with the big dogs or licking with the pups? How can you break from the pack in 2010 and beyond enabling you to run with the big dogs?

Meet the Puppies Lickin’ and Playin’ on the Porch

When it comes to commercial real estate marketing, there are pups on the porch lickin’ and there are big dogs in the fields runnin’.
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Is the President Ignoring Commercial Property?

President Barack Obama

President Barack Obama

Many experts are predicting further declines in commercial property values and performance, at least through 2009 and some are looking for recovery as late as the fourth quarter of 2010.

The Obama Administration has been funneling billions of dollars into lending institutions and dedicating billions more to the housing industry and its hoped-for recovery. This begs the question, is the President ignoring the problems now surfacing in the commercial property sector of the economy?

The short answer is yes. The longer and more complicated explanation may lie in understanding the fundamentals of the lending and insurance industries as they are the prime note holders and owners of much of the nation’s commercial real estate.

Although commercial property value declines are now underway in almost every property category, lending institutions may be free to use TARP and other funds to shore up the ailing commercial market.

A high percentage of commercial real estate owners (estimates are between 40% and 80%) will find refinancing difficult from 2009 through 2012 as 3 and 5 year note calls begin to kick-in and owners face a new set of qualifying requirements designed to reduce lender risks in commercial property lending.
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